PGA Championship weather forecast for Rochester NY: What to know

What'll it be - sweaters or sandals?

Rochester weather is notorious for its unpredictability, but only Mother Nature is truly sure what's in store for this week's PGA Championship tournament at Oak Hill Country Club. The event, which runs from Monday, May 15 through Sunday, May 21 at the Pittsford venue, could bring seasonable sunny weather and clear skies.

Or something else.

"May is a transitional month, between late spring and early summer," said Meteorologist Dan Kelly of the National Weather Service in Buffalo.

Weather in Rochester in mid-May typically ranges between overnight lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s. The normal high by the last day of May is 74, and low around 53, according to the Weather Service.

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May days typically include sunny, clear days, though rainy weather, hail, thunderstorms and cold spells are not uncommon.

Occasionally, snow lingers into May in the Rochester region, forecasters said.

While flurries often fly in Rochester as early as October, the first measurable snowfall of the season typically lands in November. When flurries do make an appearance in May, we typically see just a trace amount, barely measurable. The normal snowfall in May in Rochester is tenth of an inch, according to the Weather Service.

But sometimes, we see more. Much more.

Remember May 1989 when nearly 11 inches of snow transformed Rochester into a winter landscape? According to the Weather Service, a surprise storm dumped 10.7 inches of heavy, wet snow on Rochester around Mother's Day. The latest snow ever measured in Rochester was May 19, 1976 when 0.4 inches fell, Kelly said.

Currently - as practice rounds are underway - highs in Rochester are predicted in as warm as the mid- to upper-70s and overnight lows to dip into the 30s. But that forecast could change. The coldest day of the week is currently expected to be on Wednesday, when the high is predicted in the low 50s. The chilliest temperature is expected to follow overnight, dropping into the mid 30s, according to the Weather Service.

On Tuesday, the high is predicted to reach 77 degrees before the high drops to the mid-50s for the final day of practice rounds. On Thursday - the first day of tournament play - the high is predicted to surpass 60, followed by a much warmer Friday, with a predicted high of 78. Meteorologists predict that the weekend weather will offer highs close to or at 70. But the forecast is less reliable further out.

Rain showers are also possible off and on throughout the week, including Tuesday and Friday evenings and Saturday, according to the Weather Service.

"Oak Hill is a hard enough course in beautiful weather," said Jay Haas, who won the 2008 Senior PGA Championship at Oak Hill in windy, wet, bitter cold conditions. "Heaven forbid if they have a late spring."

Veteran pro Leonard Thompson remembered teeing off on the 10th hole at Oak Hill in 2008, his first hole of the championship, and it was sleeting. "I missed the cut there and I wasn't that upset about it," he recalled.

The first few days of that late May tournament, the temperature dipped into the low 40s, an example of the worse-case scenario for PGA officials should the mercury drop during this year's championship week.

Includes reporting by Adam Schupak of Golfweek